It seems that every year presents the same scenario - the small rogue state of North Korea, last bastion of true communism, gets everyone in an uproar by doing something to develop its military that the rest of the world doesn't like. From nuclear testing to launching missiles through the airspace of its neighbors to kidnapping fishermen, they seem to have no limit on what they’re willing to do to piss people off.
But each year, the situation diffuses as well. After slapping the country with more sanctions, the world generally calms down and so does the DPRK and then they return to their regularly scheduled round of begging aid off of everyone so that they can feed their people while their own money goes toward expanding their military or throwing billion dollar parades to honor their leader.
With the coming of a new leader in the form of Kim Jong-un, people were hoping that things might take a turn for the less violent. For a while, it looked like this might even be the case. He appeared to be spending more time working to open the country up and expanding its trading opportunities that his father did. It seemed as if North Korea might not be trapped in a state of perpetual isolation for decades to come. One could even have believed that the new leader was successfully overriding the old, hard-line military heads that hold so much of the power in the DPRK. And aside from a few minor infractions, such as some satellite launches that may or may not have been covers for ballistic missile capability testing, things were generally going pretty well.
Of course, nothing lasts forever, especially when it comes to the seemingly schizophrenic government of North Korea. And this time around, the escalation of events is climbing to potentially dangerous levels.
One of the more important developments is the fact that the DPRK has officially announced that they are opting out of the 1953 Armistice. This treaty, though it never technically ended the Korean War, was put in place to halt the conflict. It has remained an important factor in maintaining peace on the KoreanPeninsula for the last 60 years. Now that the DPRK has decided they wish to scrap it, there could be a few problems. Of course, they can’t legally end the armistice without consent from the other parties involved in signing it, but consensus matters little when it comes to breaking treaties, as the world as seen time and again. Unfortunately, China was also party to the armistice and they’re not likely to agree one bit if it means potential war on their border.
Along with this new development, North Korea is doing their usual dance of pomp and show, trying to make everyone think that they’re ready to go to war at the drop of a hat. They’ve reportedly begun evacuating their citizens near the border, though this is likely just one more tactic to gather support from their own populace. They’ve also been readying their military, as is typical during these showdowns, and screaming that everyone else is a warmonger trying to do them harm.
One thing that they have mentioned, and something that has others concerned, is that they are ready to launch nuclear weapons at both the United States and South Korea. This is unlikely to hold any degree of truth to it, however, considering their repeated rocket testing failures. But they have taken their approach to South Korea a little stronger. Not only have they openly insulted their neighbor’s new leader, but it’s said they’ve also cut off contact with South Korea in retaliation for war exercises being done between them and the U.S.
Probably the biggest change in this latest exchange of insults and threats is the shifting attitude of China. China has long been known as a supporter and protector of the smaller country, going so far as to fight against sanctions made against them. They are also one of the major suppliers of aid to the DPRK. But these latest moves by the rogue state may be going too far. China has had its own leadership change and they don’t seem to be as tolerant of all the grandstanding as they used to be. This time around, they've joined in on the sanctions against North Korea, which could be a demonstration of a new approach to the repetitive situation. The fact remains, however, that a breakdown of the DPRK government could lead to war and cause a host of problems to China, which they’ll still try to avoid at any cost. As a rising economic power, they can not be seen as pandering to a country that screams and throws threats around at every opportunity.
In the end, this could just be yet another chapter in the tantrum throwing that North Korea is famous for. The DPRK has a habit of flexing its muscles whenever there is an election in South Korea, so that they may show the new leader that they mean business. In the past, this has always calmed down in time. By the time you are reading this, in fact, the whole of the situation may have already changed for the better.
The biggest problem is that if North Korea is allowed to continue developing nuclear capability, there will come a day when the country’s threats aren’t so hollow. The Western world, along with all its Eastern allies (including China) will need to make a more permanent decision on the matter. If North Korea won’t calm its warlike tendencies, then war will be inevitable without some sort of change - a change that doesn’t just mimic the events of the past again and again.
Kim Jong-un photo courtesy of abovetopsecret.com
China North Korea border map courtesy of CIA World Factbook
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