Why I can't even start to predict the Oscar winners

Awards season is flying by, and I'm just trying to keep up with all of the happenings as best I can. Over the weekend, the Screen Actors Guild Awards were handed out. Then the Producer's Guild Awards were given. Both of these awards usually help give me a much clearer picture of Oscar frontrunners, at least in the Best Picture category. I'm starting to believe that this year's Academy Awards will be among the most unpredictable in recent memory, at least in certain categories.

Right now I'm just going to discuss possible Best Picture Oscar nominees, because if I tried to do all of the big categories at once, I think I'd be here all night. The Screen Actors Guild Awards, or the SAG Awards, are usually a strong predictor of possible Academy Awards winners. At this year's 20th annual SAG Awards, the big winner was David O. Russell's American Hustle. The SAGs give their biggest award to the outstanding cast in a motion picture - instead of just "Best Picture."

Now, let's look quickly at the results of the Producers Guild Awards, because this one was a doozy. The PGAs are often an even stronger predictor of potential Academy Award winners (17 of 24 PGA Best Picture winners went on to win the Oscar in the same category). So we're all thinking, hey, awesome! This will finally tell us! Nope. Because guess what? For the first time in a quarter of a century, there was a tie for Best Picture at the Producers Guild Awards, between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave.

So now what? Do I just crumple up my little Oscars prediction ballot? No, but I honestly have no idea which of these three outstanding films will take it all this year. 12 Years a Slave also won the Golden Globe for best picture. Maybe things will become clearer when the Directors Guild Awards are announced later this week. Or not.

I have my first gut prediction: I think 12 Years a Slave will win it all. What do you guys think? I should also point out that I can, and most likely will, change my mind several times before I  fill in my ballot.

Photo courtesy of TheWrap.com